The administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump has reemerged in global discourse after The Wall Street Journal reported a trade pressure strategy involving more than 70 countries. The plan aims to isolate China from global trade networks in exchange for reduced tariffs and trade barriers for countries that comply with Washington’s approach. The question is: should Indonesia go along with this pressure?
According to the plan, the Trump administration is seeking commitments from its trade partners to limit economic engagement with China. This includes refusing the entry of Chinese cargo ships, banning Chinese firms from operating within their territories, and stopping the inflow of cheap Chinese industrial goods. The strategy is part of a broader economic pressure campaign intended to force China back to the negotiating table.
For Indonesia, this situation is far from simple. As a country with strong trade ties to both major powers — the U.S. and China — Indonesia risks being caught in the middle of a global tug-of-war. China is currently Indonesia’s largest trading partner, with export-import volumes growing steadily each year.
Joining the strategy to isolate China would certainly affect Indonesia–China bilateral relations. Beyond economic repercussions, such a move could provoke political and diplomatic retaliation from Beijing. In the long run, it could jeopardize investment, infrastructure loans, and key strategic projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is already underway in the country.
On the other hand, the U.S. offer of tariff reductions is quite tempting, especially for domestic industries that have struggled to penetrate the American market due to high trade barriers. Still, is this reward worth the geopolitical and economic risks involved?
The Indonesian government must carefully assess this evolving global dynamic. Indonesia’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific makes it a focal point for competing global powers. However, taking sides openly may actually weaken Indonesia’s bargaining position in the international arena.
As a non-aligned country, Indonesia has a tradition of maintaining independence in its foreign policy. The principle of a “free and active” diplomacy — the foundation of Indonesia’s international stance — should be the guiding light in responding to such pressures. Indonesia must not be drawn into a zero-sum game between two global giants.
More importantly, Indonesia needs to prioritize long-term goals in building a fair and sustainable trade ecosystem. Isolating one of the world’s largest trading partners could disrupt global economic balance, with negative impacts that could ripple back to Indonesia itself.
A more strategic alternative for Indonesia would be to strengthen multilateral economic cooperation with ASEAN countries and the broader Indo-Pacific region. This would enhance Indonesia’s bargaining power without forcing alignment with either the U.S. or China.
This path also aligns with the current efforts by the government to diversify export and import markets. Overdependence on a single country — whether the U.S. or China — is a major risk amid the increasing volatility of the global order.
It is undeniable that pressure from figures like Trump will continue to come in various forms, especially as U.S. elections approach. Yet Indonesia must resist making decisions that provide only short-term benefits while compromising long-term national interests.
Indonesia must always place national interest at the core of its response to geopolitical developments. In this context, a smart and neutral economic diplomacy is key to maintaining national stability and growth.
Indonesia’s diplomatic strength lies in its ability to build bridges, not in choosing sides. For that reason, it is better for Indonesia to serve as a mediator and dialogue facilitator, rather than a pawn in any superpower’s pressure campaign.
More importantly, Indonesia must strengthen its domestic capacity. Dependence on major powers can only be reduced if Indonesia develops strong industrial competitiveness and economic self-sufficiency. This is the foundation that must be taken seriously.
The government should boost investment in technology, education, and infrastructure to ensure that the country is not easily swayed by external pressures or short-term offers. A strong economic foundation will allow Indonesia to stand tall in the face of global pressure.
In the midst of global crises and geopolitical uncertainty, Indonesia must serve as a stabilizing anchor in the region — not just an accessory to other nations' interests. This calls for mature strategy, diplomatic patience, and the courage to say no when necessary.
Therefore, in answer to the original question: Indonesia should not simply follow Trump’s trade pressure — or that of any external party. What must come first are national interests, regional stability, and integrity in foreign diplomacy.
By upholding the principle of independent and active foreign policy and strengthening economic resilience, Indonesia can navigate global challenges with wisdom and dignity. The world is changing rapidly, and Indonesia must chart its path wisely and honorably.
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